Development of Weather Forecast Models for a
Short-term Building Load Prediction
Byung-Ki Jeon 1 Kyung-Ho Lee 2 Eui-Jong Kim 3,*
Department of Architectural Engineering, Graduate school, Inha University1 Department of Solar Thermal Convergence Lab, Korea Institute of Energy Research2 Department of Architectural Engineering, Inha University3
In this work, we propose weather prediction models to estimate hourly outdoor temperatures
and solar irradiance in the next day using forecasting information. Hourly weather data
predicted by the proposed models are useful for setting system operating strategies for the next
day. The outside temperature prediction model considers 3-hourly temperatures forecasted by
Korea Meteorological Administration. Hourly data are obtained by a simple interpolation
scheme. The solar irradiance prediction is achieved by constructing a dataset with the observed
cloudiness and correspondent solar irradiance during the last two weeks and then by matching
the forecasted cloud factor for the next day with the solar irradiance values in the dataset. To
verify the usefulness of the weather prediction models in predicting a short-term building load,
the predicted data are inputted to a TRNSYS building model, and results are compared with a
reference case. Results show that the test case can meet the acceptance error level defined by the
ASHRAE guideline showing 8.8% in CVRMSE in spite of some inaccurate predictions for
hourly weather data.
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