Evaluation of UM-LDAPS Prediction Model for Solar Irradiance by using Ground Observation at Fine Temporal Resolution

Chang Ki Kim; Hyun-Goo Kim; Yong-Heack Kang; Jin-Young Kim

doi:10.7836/kses.2020.40.5.013

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2020 Vol.40, Issue 5 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Evaluation of UM-LDAPS Prediction Model for Solar Irradiance by using Ground Observation at Fine Temporal Resolution 고해상도 일사량 관측 자료를 이용한 UM-LDAPS 예보 모형 성능평가

30 October 2020. pp. 13-22

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Abstract

Day ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity market to stabilize the electricity penetration. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for longer than 12 hours forecast horizon. Korea Meteorological Administration operates the UM-LDAPS model to produce the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study interpolates the hourly total irradiance into 15 minute instantaneous irradiance and then compare them with observed solar irradiance at four ground stations at 1 minute resolution. Numerical weather prediction model employed here was produced at 00 UTC or 18 UTC from January to December, 2018. To compare the statistical model for the forecast horizon less than 3 hours, smart persistent model is used as a reference model. Relative root mean square error of 15 minute instantaneous irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 18.4% and 19.6% initialized at 18 and 00 UTC, respectively. Numerical weather prediction is better than smart persistent model at 1 hour after simulation began.

Keywords

Numerical weather prediction

Unified Model-Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System

Smart Persistent Model

In-situ measured solar irradiance

키워드

수치기상예측

UM-LDAPS

Smart Persistent Model

관측 기반 일사량

References

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Information

Publisher :Korean Solar Energy Society
Publisher(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
Journal Title(Ko) :한국태양에너지학회 논문집
Volume : 40
No :5
Pages :13-22
Received Date : 2020-07-16
Revised Date : 2020-09-10
Accepted Date : 2020-09-11
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7836/kses.2020.40.5.013

Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society ISSN:1598-6411(Print) 2508-3562(Online) 한국태양에너지학회 논문집

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